New Iowa poll: Elimination threatens several not-Romneys

Article source: The Washington Post 

The Des Moines Register is out with a new poll of likely caucus-goers. Herman Cain (23 percent) and Mitt Romney (22 percent) are in a statistical dead heat. Far back is Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.) at 12 percent. Then come Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) at 8 percent, Newt Gingrich and Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 7 percent and Rick Santorum at 5 percent. There is plenty to chew on.

We should begin with a word of caution. The poll has a margin or error of plus or minus 4.9 percent. That means Romney might be ahead or Santorum could have passed Bachmann. Moreover, there are a ton of debates and plenty of retail politicking an TV ads between now and the Iowa caucuses Jan. 3. This is at best then, a blurry snapshot in time.

With that in mind, what can we learn? Strikingly, Cain is not suffering from his near-total absence from the state. Perhaps he is simply, for now, the main vessel for the not-Romney votes. What is clear is that the other not-Romney candidates have erred in not taking Cain on earlier and more vigorously. Perhaps Cain’s numbers are “soft,” but unless Bachmann, Perry and Gingrich alter the race’s dynamic, all three could see whatever chance they have for the nomination evaporate in Iowa.

Meanwhile, Romney has not been hurt by his absence from the state, either. (“Romney has campaigned in Iowa just three times this year and skipped the Iowa straw poll in August. Cain has visited only once since the straw poll. The message to candidates seems to be: The less you’re here, the more we like you.”) He chugs along with essentially the same bloc of 20 to 25 percent of the Iowa vote he’s had since 2008. So long as he keeps those voters, the potential for a surprise win remains. Moreover, anyone who is going to top him is going to have to corral north of 20 percent of the vote. That is a steep hill for those mired in single digits.

The poll also raises a question as to why media continue to treat Perry as a first-tier candidate. He’s within the margin of error — with Santorum, for goodness sakes. The poll ran from Oct. 23 to 26, right after Perry made a big speech introducing his new economic plan. There is zero evidence so far that his new flat-tax proposal or his millions in fundraising (surely bleeding away with an army of new advisers and a TV campaign) have made any difference. Unless he sees significant progress soon, he’s headed for a humiliating loss in Iowa and a quick end to his nomination prospects.

Gingrich, Bachmann and Santorum are in a virtual dead heat. All have spent significant time in the state. All can compete for Cain voters. If one of them can break free of the pack and make a run for third place, he or she will be the “surprise” story line and continue to contend seriously for the not-Romney position.

So far Santorum’s Web ad is the only effort to go after Cain with gusto. The other contenders for the not-Romney vote should readjust their sites. Cain may be a candidate with serious flaws. He may not have staying power after Iowa. But he has the power to send them all home. If they want to get a ticket out of Iowa, they better figure out a way to puncture the Cain bubble.

Weekly GOP Candidates Review 28 August 2011

Rick Perry   

Governor Rick Perry is certainly building momentum and has jumped into a big lead over his nearest GOP rivals. Perry has been covering the three key early states of Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire shaking lots of hands and getting his teams in place. He also confirmed his participation this week in the Reagan Centennial GOP Debate sponsored by NBC & Politco on 7 September and the CNN Sponsored debate 12 September debate. He continued attacking his rivals and President Obama and managed to avoid making any controversial comments this week. I’m not convinced by the poll results and believe the set of polls taken after the debates in September will represent a much truer reflection of Governor Perry’s real standing.

Mitt Romney

Governor Romney had a tough week in the Polls with most revealing he has now fallen behind new front runner Rick Perry substantially. Governor Romney in my view had another good week because he stuck to his consistent message about jobs, called for the extradition of the Pan-Am Lockerbie Bomber and most crucially of all, announced that he was going to unveil his jobs plan in Nevada on 6 September. Romney also showed a bit of grit and excellent composure when holding a town hall as a democratic supporter tried to constantly interrupt him when trying to respond to her question. I still believe Romney represents the best chance out of the current GOP field in beating President Obama.

Michele Bachmann

Ignore the media coverage and hype since Perry entered the race, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann is still showing strong discipline and momentum in her campaign. Bachmann also drew support from South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley twice joining her on her swing into South Carolina this week. Bachmann also visited Florida this week. Bachmann is energising the party and I attribute the dip in her poll results down to two factors, the Perry lift on entering the race and the continued uncertainty about Sarah Palin entering the race. Bachmann will improve in the polls again inside a month and I am confident she’ll put in another strong showing in the September debates to boost her.

Ron Paul

Now things are becoming interesting with Congressman Ron Paul over the last two weeks, it appears increasingly likely that he’ll declare as an Independent candidate and run on his own. There is no doubt that his message and points have a very solid and strong support base however, if Paul does elect to choose this route, he’ll only be guaranteeing President Obama’s return for a second term in the White House. Paul’s campaign have also been very effective sending out signals about the media ignoring him and his messages, naturally, he’s gained considerable media attention since which would seem to confirm their viewpoint. Congressman Paul is also improving in the polls and expect his campaign to solidify his position in the polls.

Herman Cain

Herman Cain is still running a determined campaign and enjoyed a very productive week in Israel meeting Jewish leaders and discussing regional issues. Cain also enjoyed increased media coverage slamming Janeane Garofalo following comments she made about Cain being paid to run in the GOP race to prove they aren’t racist, needless to say, the Herminator gave the bigoted comments short shrift.  Cain finished the week on a high winning a straw poll in Georgia ahead of Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich.

Newt Gingrich

The former Speaker continues to operate an under rated campaign. Speaker Gingrich continues to present ideas and solutions regarding the job crisis facing America, Government reform using the Six-Sigma Model and continues to voice his objections over the President’s socialist policies and the Super committee concept. The week ended on a decent note with Gingrich coming third in a straw poll in Georgia. Gingrich also jumped to the Tea Party’s defence over the increasing attacks from the liberal media and some democratic politicians insinuating that they are racist and nutters. Gingrich said it was a last ditch attempt to hide failed liberal policies.

Jon Huntsman

The week started strangely, I must admit for former Governor Huntsman insofar as he undertook a media whirlwind attacking his GOP candidates and President Obama in equal measures. It appeared that Huntsman was lining himself up possibly to go out as a Independent candidate with him continuing to make an real impact in the polls. However, a huge significant moment occurred during the week, Jeb Bush said Tuesday that he likes GOP presidential candidate Jon Huntsman “a lot.” Many see Jeb Bush as a very credible and strong politician and while stopping short of a resounding endorsement, to have received such an indicative level of support can only boost Huntsman. Huntsman appears to have realised that he needs to deliver big in next months debates and set himself apart from the rest of the GOP to stand any realistic chance of finally grabbing some traction. He has all the credentials to be President I just wonder if he really wants it bad enough this time round.

Thaddeus McCotter

Congressman McCotter has continued to spend time building his face and name recognition and travelling to Iowa and New Hampshire. It appears he is styling his campaign on the Governor Huckabee’s 2008 effort.

Note: 

The next GOP weekly update will be provided on Sunday, September 11, 2011 due to the Congressional recess and GOP debates.

Latest Gallup Poll Results Source:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/149180/Perry-Zooms-Front-Pack-2012-GOP-Nomination.aspx

Weekly GOP Candidates Review – 7 August 2011.

The week in U.S. Politics has been dominated this week by the Debt Ceiling crisis and most of the GOP contenders have been putting their efforts into hard campaigning with the IOWA Ames Straw Poll This will be a big week for the Republican Presidential candidates with the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa. It will give the American nation and Republican field the first insight into who intends to stay the course and no doubt will have some casualties.

FOX News and The Washington Examiner, in conjunction with the Iowa Republican Party, will present the first Iowa presidential debate on August 11th. The debate will take place at Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa and will set the stage for the Iowa Republican Party Ames Straw Poll on August 13th.

Some of the current GOP field will no doubt have to drop out of the race after this weekend’s result either as a result of lack of finance, or standing no realistic chance of remote success.

Facts of the week

The United States had its credit rating downgraded for the first time in its history (1917) by Standard & Poor.

The July unemployment figure released Friday showed unemployment at 9.1% however, a huge increase in the number of people leaving the job market entirely.

Weekly Ranking/ Previous Weeks Ranking	Comments
1 -  (1)	Mitt Romney Romney continued his build up to Iowa by staying on message about Job creation and emphasising his business background. He even visited President Obama’s home town of Chicago asking where the jobs are. Romney did make perhaps his first ill-judged move of the campaign by waiting until a deal had been struck over the Debt Deal before issuing a statement, a move which earned him the wrath of Sarah Palin. Romney is likely to come under attack during this coming Thursday’s debate.
2 -  (2)	Michele Bachmann Congresswoman Bachmann carried on her attacks on the Obama Administration and their handling of the economy. She inflicted a number of punches in a week of relatively bad economic news and won the endorsement of 100 influential pastors in Iowa. Bachmann has come under scrutiny regarding her convictions on the debt issue however; she has stood firm and consistent throughout. She really does need to top the poll in Iowa and anything less will say more about her campaign organisational set-up, then about Rep. Bachmann herself. To her credit, she again was the quick to release a statement following the devastating loss of American servicemen lives in Afghanistan over the weekend. My tip to top the Ames Poll.
3 -  (3)	Ron Paul Congressman Paul spent most of last week fielding interviews regarding the U.S. downgrade of its AAA credit by S&P which reinforces his economic message to some extent in the current political climate. Paul attacked President Obama & the other deal makers in Washington for the creation of the Special Debt Deal committee. Paul also highlighted the failed Obama Administration economic policies and the quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. Paul’s operation is highly organised ahead of Ames and his grassroots supporters are renowned for turning out in force. He will definitely put in a strong showing in Iowa and realistically is the only candidate who could challenge Bachmann for top spot in the Ames straw poll.
4  – (4)	Herman Cain Cain’s “Common Sense Solutions” Tour in Iowa is going at full space. Cain for the 10th consecutive week, Cain placed first in Gallup’s positive intensity ranking and comfortably won the Western Conservative Summit presidential straw poll the previous Sunday. On the news of S&P’s downgrade he criticised the Obama Administration for never once demonstrating a willingness to propose its own ideas for meaningful cuts. I am a fan of Cain and really hope he can make a splash in Iowa this week. A top three finish would be good and in light of the economic problems America is facing, his business experience and problem solving track record should not be dismissed, it is needed in a President now more than ever.
5 – (5)	Rick Santorum Santorum and his family had a busy week in Iowa which will see them visit 50 towns and cities before the Ames Straw Poll. He has been suffering in terms of media coverage and there is no doubt, other GOP candidates who aren’t even coring as high as he is in the Polls are getting more media coverage. While he commended Speaker Boehner for reaching a deal over the debt ceiling he criticised the deal as not going far enough and said a Santorum administration would work towards a balanced budget. Santorum has put a lot of effort in ahead of the Ames straw poll and the outcome could be decisive for his chances and campaign as a whole.
6 – (6)	Newt Gingrich Another controversy hit Newt’s campaign last week over allegations regarding his Twitter account; it was actually a storm in a tea cup and an attempt by some to finish his campaign off ahead of the Ames Poll. Gingrich has been resolute that he is focussing on the primaries and not concerned with the outcome of the polls at this stage. Newt’s campaign certainly is at a financial disadvantage heading into Iowa this weekend. Newt’s slammed the President’s policies as the main cause for driving down the U.S. economy and put forward some credible solutions to drive economic growth. A Top five finish in Iowa would be a good result for Newt at this stage.
7 – (7)	Tim Pawlenty Pawlenty’s campaign really ramped up their efforts in Iowa and on the national media last week claiming considerable air-time. Pawlenty knows he needs to claim a top three spot in Iowa just to realistically remain in the race. He constantly referred interviewers to his economic plan he announced in Chicago last month when questioned over the economy showing he is one of the few candidates with a formulated plan in place. Pawlenty said on the news of S&P’s downgrade that it is a sad moment for the United States, but it’s a reflection that our country is in trouble. President Obama is inept when it comes to creating the conditions or job creation and economic growth. It’s time for a new direction and a new President. He showed his hand on foreign affairs by releasing a statement on the Syrian crisis. If Pawlenty can deliver a performance in Thursday night Fox News debate unlike his previous two experiences he might just do enough to achieve his aim in Iowa.
8 – (8)	Jon Huntsman In a campaign which many believed could galvanise the GOP field over a month ago things are going badly wrong for the Huntsman Campaign. More internal fighting among his campaign staff and concern over finances appears to be crippling his efforts. Huntsman is also still finding it hard to gain traction in New Hampshire despite spending considerable time in the state, it is accepted that he is still introducing himself to voters. Huntsman even resorted to trying to steal Herman Cain’s Mantra by saying he is all about solutions. The strategy seems fundamentally flawed and he has some big decisions to make in the coming weeks if he is serious about staying in the race and running for President.
9 – (9)	Thaddeus McCotter The late entrant had another good week with his five core principles being well received. McCotter is boxing very clever using a lot of what the president has said in the past and instead of McCotter saying it, he is using the president’s own words or statement to attack the president. McCotter’s campaign opened their national campaign offices in Plymouth, Michigan last week too. He also attacked President Obama for charging $35,000 per plate at a fundraising dinner while over 30 million American can’t find better jobs and are living in a stagnant economy. He is doing well so far.
10 (10)	Gary Johnson Against every odd Gary Johnson still is mounting a good campaign with limited resources through effective use of the social media resources at his disposal. He had an excellent article written about him in the UK’s Telegraph Newspaper. He called the U.S. $14.6 trillion debt as unsustainable. I applaud his efforts and he has done well on every level and has some really innovative and excellent ideas for America’s current problems however, it is difficult seeing Johnson staying in the race for long after this weekend.

Weekly GOP Candidates Review – 31 July 2011

The week in U.S. Politics has been dominated this week by the Debt Ceiling crisis and most of the GOP contenders have been putting their efforts into hard campaigning with the IOWA Ames Straw Poll due on the 13 August, 2011.

This weeks GOP review will be a brief update and there are no positional changes for this weeks update.

Facts of the week

• The big news of the week economically would’ve been the lower than expected second quarter 1.3% GDP figure well short of the expected 1.8% figure. It was probably just as well for President Obama.
• 30% of voters polled by Rasmussen said President Obama is too confrontational in his handling of the debt ceiling crisis.
• According to a Gallup Poll just 40 percent of Americans say they approve of Obama’s performance as president. That is down three percentage points from Thursday. Fifty percent say they do not approve of the Job he is doing. The poll represents an administration-time low for President Obama.

Weekly Ranking/ Previous Weeks Ranking	Comments
1 -  (1)	Mitt Romney Continued the week sticking to his message about the economy and made his first Campaign stop in Ohio talking about jobs attacked Chinese businesses as being the “worst offenders” of global trade rules vowing he would “get tough” with China, if he wins in 2012. He also received a boost that former Rhode Island Governor Donald Carcieri will endorse him for president. Romney’s standing as the frontrunner is still solid although Rick Perry is now looking a solid second. I believe Romney short of some unforeseen catastrophe will be the Republican nominee especially after the debt ceiling crisis in Washington this week. People want jobs.
2 -  (2)	Michele Bachmann Bachmann is still the declared second choice candidate although she has suffered considerable attacks this week over her stance on not raising the debt ceiling.  Bachmann blasted the president for taking the country’s trillion-dollar debt lightly and challenged him to take the lead in coming up with a real solution. Her campaign team released a well timed statement saying there is very little difference between Governor Pawlenty’s past positions and Barack Obama’s positions on several critical issues facing Americans. On issues such as unconstitutional healthcare mandates, climate change regulations, and Wall Street bailouts, there’s very little daylight, indeed, between Governor Pawlenty’s record and the Obama administration’s policies. This follows the repeated earlier attacks on her by Former Governor Pawlenty.
3 -  (3)	Ron Paul Ron Paul has had a good week this week and actually will be one of the few politicians left undamaged after the debt debacle in Washington this week. The reason for this is purely down to the consistency of his message regarding the debt over the years and the fact that he hasn’t changed his positioned and has pointed out that all plans presented don’t tackle the debt issue and are not real spending cuts. Congressman Paul is certainly consistent and credible for what he stands for.
4  – (4)	Herman Cain Herman Cain had a more positive week meeting with Muslim leaders clarifying his opposition on Sharia law but apologised for recent comments which questioned the patriotism of American Muslims. On a more positive note, it was a great week for Cain to deliver his “Economic Vision for America”, and he got lots of air time regarding how he would fix the problem. On a personal note, it was good to hear his news that his doctor’s confirmed he got the five year cancer all clear from doctors, truly good news.
5 – (5)	Rick Santorum Santorum came third in the Denver straw poll being Herman Cain and Rick Perry this week. The one story that won’t go away is his continuing feud with Dan Savage who is threatening to Google Bomb Santorum again Savage making a new threat to change the candidate’s name — this time, his first. Santorum needs to get down to business this week and get some media coverage on the issues.
6 – (6)	Newt Gingrich It was another good week for Newt who visited his home state of Georgia and talked with local citizens about important issues, like returning to job creation, eliminating bureaucratic delays in government and real solutions for immigration reform. Gingrich also got plenty of air time regarding the debt ceiling talks and solutions to the national debt problem. Credit should also go to Gingrich with the collapse of economic growth to 1.3% last quarter; he is the only GOP candidate consistently calling for the repeal Dodd-Frank to restart job growth. Newt is slowly grinding his way back into the campaign.
7 – (7)	Tim Pawlenty The former Minnesota Governor has a quiet week. He is campaigning hard in Iowa ahead of the Ames Straw Poll which many predict is make or break for him and his challenge and I have to agree. He attacked President Obama on his lack of leadership on the stalled debt ceiling talks and disastrous GDP figures on Friday. Rep. Bachmann’s team hit back early in the week comparing his record with that of President Obama and it caused him damage this week.
8 – (8)	Jon Huntsman Huntsman had a better week this week talking everything from the stalled debt ceiling talks, America’s over reliance on oil imports through to throwing his support behind Speaker John Boehner and his efforts to get a deal done. Huntsman has been putting a lot of effort into New Hampshire while all the other candidates are off in Iowa or Ohio in the hope he can gain some traction. Jon Huntsman assailed President Obama’s handling of the debt crisis Friday night, sharpening his attack and accusing the president of lecturing instead of leading. Huntsman also took a stab at Romney indirectly accusing him of ducking the debate and not offering any solutions.
9 – (9)	Thaddeus McCotter Rep. McCotter to his credit has been doing very well this week spending lots of time talking about the debt ceiling and spending crisis in Washington. He hasn’t been ducking the debate; he’s grabbed with both hands and has offered ideas and solutions on a whole range of economic matters over the last week. McCotter took a shot at President Obama’s handling of the crisis too saying America knows, we are being neither led nor governed.  McCotter is a very impressive guy in front of the camera and to listen to. I’m predicting he could cause a few upsets if his challenge isn’t taken seriously by others.
10 (10)	Gary Johnson Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson spent the week telling people he would veto any legislation that doesn’t balance the federal budget if he’s elected president. He means it too; look at his impressive record as Governor of New Mexico. If people wanted to elect a President who could sort of the nation’s finances, Johnson would be the man who would get my support why, because he did it in New Mexico. Johnson also attacked any campaign challenge by Rick Perry during the week too saying America isn’t ready for another Texas Governor as President just yet. In fairness, he may well have a valid point.

Weekly GOP Candidates Review – 24 July 2011.

As part of the coverage of the 2012 Campaign, I’ll be providing a weekly summary on all the Candidates giving them a ranking and also be covering President Obama’s performance.

You’ll find the weekly review posted here every Sunday.

Fact of the week

The Debt Ceiling debate dominated the national media coverage across the U.S. There is also growing speculation that Texas Governor Rick Perry will shortly announce his candidacy with many national polls showing placing him second or third even before he enters the race.

Weekly Ranking/ Previous Weeks Ranking	Comments
1 -  (1)	Mitt Romney Current front-runner former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney had another solid week. He continued to visit key states spending time in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Iowa. Romney carried on taking his message and business background to the people by focussing on Job creation and the economy.Attacking President Obama Romney said, “The president’s policies almost without question have caused this recession to be deeper and longer than it would have been and have made this recovery more anemic than it should have been,” at a campaign stop in a run-down North Hollywood community. Romney undertook a very successful Tele-Town Hall on Monday with 10,000 people joining in asking a wide range of questions. Romney’s wife Ann joined the Campaign Trail too this week spending two days in the first southern primary state of South Carolina. Polls are also encouraging for Romney with some showing him leading President Obama in a head to head already or closing the gap within one or two points which, 18 months out from an election is certainly good news at this stage. The week also ended with Romney adding some muscle to his Florida campaign team in the form of Bertica Cabrera-Morris, an Orlando-based lobbyist and GOP activist who was active in the campaigns of Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, and Jay Demetree, the chair of Jacksonville-based Demetree Brothers homebuilders, will serve as senior advisor and finance co-chair respectively.
2 -  (2)	Michele Bachmann Rep. Bachmann continues to perform well despite being subject to some vicious and nasty attacks from the liberal media and allegedly one of her GOP race colleagues.  Rep. Bachmann is still a solid second or third in most polls despite the attacks and her campaign which two months again may have appeared by most commentators to be a flash in the pan, now has a certain solidified look about it.Bachmann signed the “Cut, Cap and Balance” Pledge during a campaign stop in Columbia, South Carolina. Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) had authored and championed the Pledge and also promised she would submit only balanced budgets if elected next year, but she stopped short of promising to veto any deficit budget presented to her by Congress. Bachmann also took part in a presidential campaign first by taking part in a Twitter Town Hall debate with five other candidates. Bachmann released a medical note regarding her migraine’s to try and quell the unnecessary scrutiny over such an issue. In fact, it won’t be Bachmann who suffers over the nasty release it will be Pawlenty’s campaign which many in the media are pointing the finger of blame at. Bachmann will need to be ready for Rick Perry’s entry into the race but she is in the race for the long haul and has done exceedingly well and dumbfounding many of her critics.
3 -  (4)	Ron Paul The Texas Congressman had a good week with his hard line message on economic prudence and debt management appealing to a growing base of Americans frustrated at Washington’s inability to manage to country’s finances. Ron Paul has been talking tough on the real problem which is deficit reduction. Paul has accused Washington on defaulting on the American people. Paul’s strong week can be attributed to his strong constitutional message and belief in personal liberty in a week where both have been questioned in the media.Republican presidential candidate and Texas Rep. Ron Paul is leading the field of Republican presidential candidates. Mr. Paul, among the most conservative members of the House, trails former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney in the field of Republican presidential candidates, trailing President Obama by just 4 percentage points. Mr. Romney leads Mr. Obama by 1 percent. The poll comes as Mr. Paul has increased his campaign’s presence within Iowa, where he has spent upwards of $40,000 in preparation for the Ames Republican Presidential Straw Poll slated to take place in early August.
4  – (5)	Herman Cain The Islam controversy followed Herman Cain into much of this week with much of the liberal media running news story after news story on his comments and stance. Indirectly, this is paying dividends for Cain in boosting his name recognition amongst Americans. What appeals to many American’s about Cain is the fact that he is not a politician and speaks directly like the average man in the street. He took part in the GOP Twitter Town hall and jumped to the defence of Michele Bachmann over the migraine attacks. Cain also attacked the president over the stalled debt ceiling talks outlining how the current impasse was wholly preventable. A difficult ten days but his name and face recognition and media coverage got a huge lift. Still the average man’s favourite candidate.
5 – (7)	Rick Santorum Santorum refused to endorse any compromise to raise the debt ceiling unless it included a balanced budget amendment during the week. Surprisingly, it was revealed that a former controversy involving a filthy comment by a columnist and Santorum back in 2003 is actually resulting in a financial benefit to his campaign. Santorum privately must have been grateful for the attack on the Bill Maher show as his campaign was starting to lag even resulting in him attacking tea-Party favourite over her stance on raising the debt limit. There is no doubt that Santorum and Pawlenty’s campaign’s have suffered at Bachmann’s strong entry. He ended the week announcing the formation of the Rick Santorum for President Iowa Steering Committee. This committee consists of Twenty-Five conservative community leaders from across Iowa who will support him in his campaign.Santorum like Pawlenty needs to deliver in Iowa or New Hampshire especially with the likelihood of Texas Governor Rick Perry entering the race. If they fail to deliver a big result in either state their challenge and race will be over.
6 – (9)	Newt Gingrich The former Speaker who has been working hard in recent weeks to overcome poor second quarter results and early staff defections is starting as I predicted to mounting a possible comeback in his presidential campaign bid. Newt talks about the issues and presents solutions better than any other candidate in the race. The former speaker just needs to work hard and sticking to message and avoid any further campaign setbacks or controversies. He gained good positive coverage this week for being the only GOP candidate to level specific criticisms at the Frank-Dodd legislation on a regular basis. Gingrich said, “Dodd-Frank is crippling any recovery in the housing market with overly strict requirements on lenders combined with uncertainty for community banks.” Gingrich need to work hard in the next month and raise funds to stay in the race. If he can manage that, don’t be surprised if he can mount a serious comeback in 2012 against the odds.
7 – (8)	Tim Pawlenty While there were some positives to Pawlenty’s campaign this week, there is perhaps one item which could spell ruin to his chances. It was leaked this week about Rep. Bachmann’s Migraine condition and all the fingers are pointing towards Pawlenty’s team as being the source. Pawlenty went after Bachmann the week before attacking her experience and legislative record but if it is proved that the source of the leak came from his team, his campaign race will be over. Bachmann is popular with many in the conservative movement who have been quick to jump to her defence under the torrent of attacks she has experienced this week. I think people expect personal attacks and under handed tricks but this step if proven, was very ill advised.Pawlenty supported the House Republicans for passing the “Cut, Cap and Balance” bill and attacked President Obama and his administration for continuing to spend beyond the our nation’s means amidst a hurting economy and soaring unemployment numbers. He launched a very creative ad to coincide with his tour across Iowa in an RV called the “The American Comeback,” which focuses on the need to restore American prosperity. Pawlenty needs a good result in Iowa or New Hampshire and the straw poll in August could determine where his campaign goes even at this early stage.
8 – (3)	Jon Huntsman Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Campaign was dealt a double blow this week with the announcement that campaign manager Susie Wiles would be replaced by Matt David, who had served as the campaign’s communications director. Secondly, most polls have him in low single digits between 1-3% depending on what poll you look at which, is simply not good enough, to be building momentum for a serious presidential challenge.A third and more serious threat to his challenge could come once the debt ceiling talks are resolved in Washington in the shape of Texas Governor Rick Perry entering the race. Huntsman has access to the necessary funds to launch a media blitz to improve his name recognition among voters and this may very well have to be the option he resorts to ahead of any announcement by Perry. I don’t doubt Huntsman ability or credentials, I actually think he is one of the best all rounder’s among the GOP candidates and has that vital foreign affairs experience which the other candidates don’t. Most polls already have Perry either second or third in the race even before he has announced and if Huntsman hasn’t gained some traction in the polls by the time of his announcement it is hard to see him making a comeback against Romney, Bachmann and Perry.
9 – (10)	Thaddeus McCotter McCotter had a good week, he approached his criticism of the president and the economy by focussing on the failure of the current administration to restructure to meet the challenges and enable America to grow again. He also took a leap out of Donald Trump’s book by attacking China on the threat they pose to America’s economy and security. In the short time he has been in the race he’s shown himself to be an impressive speaker and a man with ideas and sharp thoughts on the current problems facing America. McCotter’s challenge got a big end of the week boost by being named on the card for the IOWA August straw poll.
10 (6)	Gary Johnson Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson spent the week talking about the issues with his normal dogged determination and trying to keep his insurgency campaign alive. Johnson was dealt a huge blow Saturday night when it was confirmed he wouldn’t be on the card for the IOWA straw poll and one would have to think any remote chance he had of gaining a foothold in the race are now effectively over. I wish hi well, the truth is Johnson’s campaign never really got off the ground despite his outstanding record as Governor of New Mexico.

GOP Candidates Weekly Review 17 July 2011.

As part of the coverage of the 2012 Campaign, I’ll be providing a weekly summary on all the Candidates giving them a ranking and also be covering President Obama’s performance.

You’ll find the weekly review posted here every Sunday.

Fact of the week

The Debt Ceiling debate dominated the national media coverage across the U.S. after the Casey Anthony trial last week. The United States National Debt surpassed the astonishing $14.5 trillion mark on Friday with no agreement in sight. This resulted in no positional changes.

Weekly Ranking/ Previous Weeks Ranking	Comments
1 -  (1)	Mitt Romney Another steady and progressive week for the GOP front runner former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. He started off the week undertaking a Private Fund raiser in Portland, Oregan.Following the recent spate of pledges and GOP candidates signing up to them Romney’s campaign said that he will not sign a conservative Iowa Christian group’s far-reaching pledge opposing gay marriage, making him the first Republican presidential candidate to reject it. The Democratic National Committee must be growing worried about Romney’s consistent strong polling and presidential like appearances and as they launched a new ad attacking the former Massachusetts governor’s record on job creation. In a big boost to his campaign he received the support of Jim Rausch who is the third member of the New Hampshire State Senate to endorse Mitt Romney, joining Senators Jeb Bradley (R-Wolfeboro) and Jack Barnes (R-Raymond). Romney continued his platform of focussing on the economy by attacking President Obama again saying,”The nation is suffering. Three years into his four year term, 20 million Americans are out of work, have given up, or are underemployed in part time jobs. Home values continue to go down. Foreclosures are at near-record record levels. Our national debt is skyrocketing–President Obama is on course to add as much debt by the end of his term as all the former presidents combined. Romney also called on President Obama to reject the comment from White House adviser David Plouffe that unemployment rates or even monthly jobs numbers do not matter to average Americans. Another good week for the front runner.
2 -  (2)	Michele Bachmann It was a difficult week for Rep. Bachman with increasing media attacks and Tim Pawlenty attacking her directly on her accomplishment record. She got dragged into a controversy for signing a pledge with made reference to Blacks in America being worse off then they were in slavery times. This act drew a fierce attack from The View host Whoopi Goldberg.Republican presidential hopeful Michele Bachmann’s campaign said on Friday it had more than $4.2 million in contributions at the end of the second quarter, much of it from small donors. The Minnesota congresswoman’s campaign said it had received more than 88,000 contributions, averaging about $48 each, and that it had more than $3.6 million cash in hand. Pawlenty continued his desperate and ill-advised attacks on Bachmann, who polls show is leading Pawlenty in his seemingly must-win state of Iowa, countered that “instead of negativity, I want to focus on my accomplishments.” She also attacked President Obama’s economic performance and his administration’s policies. More good news came in the shape of a new poll of likely caucus goers in Iowa by the Republican-leaning Magellan Strategies shows Bachmann with 29% of the vote. Next place finisher Mitt Romney has 16% Bachmann responded to the growing attacks on her from all sides simply saying, “When you are running for the presidency of the United States, you have to expect that you are going to have attacks by all sides. But my focus has not been on negativity because that is not what people are talking about. My focus has been on accomplishments and how we can turn the economy around and create jobs again. Another strong week for Rep. Michele Bachmann.
3 -  (3)	Jon  Huntsman Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman he refused to sign Jim DeMint’s “Cut, Cap and Balance” pledge, the senator’s latest scheme in his quest to become the GOP kingmaker. Huntsman called for a “new industrial revolution,” a balanced budget amendment, energy independence and an end to unnecessary “foreign entanglements.”Huntsman like Romney focussed on issues consistently this saying America needs the kind of jobs that free-market, pro-growth policies can help create. In fact, the policies that Gov. Huntsman championed helped make Utah the fastest growing state in the nation and number one in job creation. Huntsman attacked Romney’s record, saying “All you need to do is look at one’s track record while serving in an executive position,” Huntsman said. “Take our first-place position here as a state in terms of jobs created during certain periods and you can compare and contrast that with 47th, which is where Massachusetts was when Romney was governor there. Let the numbers be your guide.” Huntsman is doing what Tim Pawlenty failed to do; he is focussing on the issues and slowly building himself as the alternative candidate to Romney. Another good week for Huntsman.
4  – (4)	Ron Paul Rep. Ron Paul has been talking all about the national debt and debt ceiling over the last week. The Texas Congressman continues to maintain his strong loyal base. The big announcement this week as far as Rep. Paul is the announcement that he does not intend to run for re-election to the House of Representatives in 2012. So it will be a case of the White House or no house fro Rep. Paul come 2012.
5 – (5)	Herman Cain The week started off with some good news for Herman Cain after attending the Conservative Leadership Conference in Nevada, where he won gaining 24% of the vote, beating out Mitt Romney into second place. He was attacked though by leading Latino republican’s for not offering any practical solutions on the immigration and border issues.Cain also refused to sign the anit-gay marriage pledge releasing a statement saying, “I stand firmly with the FAMILY Leader and share their vision and commitment to supporting traditional values in American society. I am, and will continue to be, an ardent defender of traditional marriage and will work to preserve and protect the sanctity of human life, which I believe begins at conception. While I commend their intent regarding the pledge, I believe my stated position encompasses their values without the need to sign the pledge.” He finished the week causing a storm when supporting Tennessee and other communities in their right to ban Islamic mosques. This view is sure to cause controversy going into Monday morning. Cain needs to get some of his mojo back from a month ago. He is sliding in a number of polls and just doesn’t appear to be getting the front stage media coverage he was then.
6 – (6)	Gary Johnson Gary Johnson got involved in the debate surrounding the recent Family Leader Pledge calling it “Offensive and Unrepublican.” Johnson was highly critical of candidates signing up to pledges and the use of legislation to infringe personal liberty. He managed yet again to get some increasing national television coverage which is promising for him. Governor Gary Johnson urged Republicans not to cave in during debt ceiling negotiations and reiterated his opinion that the debt ceiling limit should be lifted. Another improving week for the former Governor Johnson.
7 – (7)	Rick Santorum Santorum got a big boost to his campaign this week when the first GOP national committee member from any of the four early-voting states to back a candidate in the presidential race, Iowa’s Republican National Committeewoman endorsed him. Kim Lehman is deeply influential with the first-caucus state’s anti-abortion activists.Santorum, also attacked Huntsman, who’s made much of his love of riding motorcycles. A Santorum Web ad shows a motorcyclist soaring through the air and then crashing in the dirt, and flashes these words on the screen, “Hasn’t signed the anti-abortion pledge. Just like Mitt Romney.” The week seemed dominated by arguments and accusations over pledges but Santorum explained his rationale for signing pledges saying, “At a time when voters have grown sceptical about politicians and candidates who run on certain platform only to backtrack once elected, signing a pledge is a good way to strengthen our political promises.
8 – (8)	Tim Pawlenty Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty continued his attacks on Rep. Michele Bachmann and unfortunately for Pawlenty, it only appears to be helping her and being of little or no impact in the polls to him. Appearing on NBC he said, “I like Congresswoman Bachmann,” Pawlenty said on NBC. “I’ve campaigned for her. I respect her. But her record of accomplishment in Congress is nonexistent. It’s nonexistent.” He received a boost of sorts when Bruce Keough, former New Hampshire State Senator and former Chairman of Board of Trustees for the University System of New Hampshire, endorsed him for President.He made another lame attack on President Obama saying, “Mr. President, stop trying to scare Americans into agreeing to higher taxes and spending. With our economy on the ropes and unemployment growing, it is unconscionable that President Obama would be proposing higher taxes and more spending, but not surprising coming from the same man who gave us the failed stimulus and Obamacare. It was revealed that Pawlenty reserved roughly $200,000 of television advertising time in the state, the largest purchase yet by anyone in a 2012 presidential race. Pawlenty’s poll numbers have been stagnant in Iowa. No improvement in Pawlenty’s chances in the last week.
9 – (9)	Newt Gingrich There are signs that the former Speaker is mounting something of an encouraging comeback through sheer perseverance.  He continues to focus on discussing the issues and rumours from his campaign say his fund raising has improved and he already has cleared $500,000 of the $1 million for which the campaign reported being in the red for the second quarter. He gave speeches on energy, the Boeing – Trade Union dispute and job creation this week. Gingrich’s catch phrase of the “Obama Depression” is also starting to catch on in the mainstream media with Gingrich saying, “Republicans are happy to be the party of jobs and pay checks”.Another useful piece of news for the Former U.S. House Speaker is these days of social media is that he is way ahead of his rivals on Twitter. The Republican presidential hopeful has posted 2,611 Twitter messages in the 29 months since he joined the micro blogging site in February 2009, Politico reported. Gingrich has a whopping 1.3 million followers and sends an average of three posts a day. Another week without a scandal and people are now starting to sit up and take note of what the former speaker is actually saying about the issues.
10 (10)	Thaddeus McCotter The new entrant has just being getting around the media and as many of the early states as possible this week. He naturally has also started courting the large Irish – American support which traditionally has gone to liberal democratic candidates. McCotter is a different type of Republican candidate and he really could make a showing in the debates if given the chance. He is focussing on empowering the American people and spent the week talking about the economic issues. A good first proper week in the campaign but definitely he could be a very interesting candidate.

Weekly GOP Candidates Review – W/E 10th July 2011.

As part of the coverage of the 2012 Campaign, I’ll be providing a weekly summary on all the Candidates giving them a ranking and also be covering President Obama’s performance.

You’ll find the weekly review posted here every Sunday.

Fact of the week

9.2% Unemployment rate for the month of June meaning unemployment has grown in the U.S. for the third consecutive month. The real unemployment rate is considered to be 15.8% when under employment is factored in.

Weekly Ranking/ Previous Weeks Ranking	Comments
1 -  (2)	Mitt Romney The week started well for Romney getting the endorsement Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz over his rival Jon Huntsman. It was also confirmed that he is streets ahead of his rivals reaping in $18.25 million in the second quarter and topping the latest New Hampshire polls. Another poll showed him currently tied with President Obama in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania and he released a superbly timed ad targeting President Obama’s job record in Pennsylvania, it was an extremely powerful ad as it used Obama’s own words and policies against him. He ended the week fund raising in New Jersey and supported by New York Jets owner Woody Johnson. Romney also became the first candidate to travel abroad to London, England for a fund raising event and met British Prime Minister David Cameron Romney is running a very strong campaign so far and his efforts are constantly focussed on President Obama rather then any of his Republican rivals. His campaign is very presidential and at present he is oozing class and confidence ahead of his rivals.
2 -  (1)	Michele Bachmann Another good week for Rep. Michele Bachmann despite increasing attacks from the mainstream media. She Signed a values pledge to oppose same sex marriage in Iowa which caused controversy surrounding comments over slavery and indeed, former Governor Tim Pawlenty spent a considerable amount of time in the last week attacking her record of accomplishment’s in congress. Mr. Pawlenty’s attacks are in fact good news for Rep. Bachmann as he clearly views her leading him in the polls. The move by Pawlenty will not serve to highlight Rep. Bachmann’s record but his failure to attack front-runner Mitt Romney in a similar manner. Bachmann launched new ad in Iowa on Thursday distinguishing herself and describes herself extremely well and how she fought against wasteful spending and raising debt ceiling, it was a very good introductory ad. She rounded off the week by attacking President Obama on the economy saying, “Today’s unemployment report is another stark reminder of the failure of President Obama’s economic policies.
3 -  (3)	Jon Huntsman Huntsman had a good week. He is stepping up his campaign and making considerable efforts in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. His name and face recognition are increasing. He did suffer a setback when Utah’s legislators threw their support behind front runner Mitt Romney in the last week. Indirectly, it is good that the media are starting to cover the GOP race increasingly as a head to head between Romney and Huntsman. Huntsman and Romney spent time trying to court the mormon support and vote. Huntsman pulled off a coup by appointing Mark McIntosh as his presidential campaign’s top policy director. McIntosh will split his time between Huntsman’s Orlando headquarters and the GOP policy world in Washington coordinating expert advice on a range of issues, from the economy to energy, health care and foreign policy. Lynn Forester de Rothchild held a fund-raiser in her New York home for Huntsman. Mrs. Rothschild told The Globe that they had raised $1.2 million. Huntsman ended the week commenting on Friday’s job report figures saying,” America needs new leadership to turn around our country.”
4  – (4)	Ron Paul Carried on focussing and talking about the issues. He took aim early in the week calling for an end the Transportation Security Administration and its controversial screening techniques. His money bomb raised around $1 million and he ended the week sounding a note of caution to his rivals and Republicans about accepting a deal on the debt ceiling. On the horizon what could pose a major problem for Rep. Paul’s campaign is the increasing likelihood of Texas Governor Rick Perry entering the race. Should Perry enter the race it is likely that Paul would lose a considerable amount of support in Texas and elsewhere.
5 – (6)	Herman Cain Herman Can bounced back from a tough previous week and gained a lot of media coverage talking about the economy and debt ceiling issues. On hearing Friday’s job report Cain said,”This is demonstrably and empirically the worst economic ‘recovery’ in American history,” “As dismal as they are, today’s jobless numbers “do not even include those who have simply given up on finding work or are underemployed, scraping to get by,” added Cain. Cain attended The fourth annual Conservative Leadership Conference in Las Vegas along with Gary Johnson . Cain is proving he is not the typical political candidate and his rugged, individualistic and determined campaigning is building a strong support base and the Democrats can’t attack his Tea-party credentials either as their claim was that it was a racist organisation. Cain is every sense is proving popular because he is an outstanding communicator, has solutions and does not claim to know everything, I find it refreshing hearing a candidate admitting that they are not an expert in everything. A good week for Mr.Cain.
6 – (8)	Gary Johnson The former Governor from New Mexico had another improving week gaining much improved media coverage. He won praise for not abandoning his political beliefs for religious votes and slammed those candidates signing the anti-gay marriage pledge. Johnson has been called the GOP’s invisible candidate but he is not short in ideas launching a website for poker-players attending the world series and he’s even getting media coverage and articles written about his unusual methods to gain attention. Johnson responded to Friday’s unsettling economic news by saying that “it’s time for Washington to stop fiddling while Rome is burning.” Johnson proposed an immediate three-step program to get the economy moving. Johnson’s plan includes eliminating the corporate income tax; cutting spending immediately by $300 billion to offset the temporary loss of revenue; and directing all federal agencies to adopt regulations that meet a standard of creating certainty for employers while removing existing obstacles to job creation in the private sector. Another improving week for the former Governor Johnson.
7 – (5)	Rick Santorum Rick Santorum, signed the pledge, which condemned gay marriage, abortion, infidelity and pornography. Santorum defended his lowly showing in the early polls by saying,” We think being at the back of the pack is not a bad place to be in Iowa,” Santorum told CBS News’ Erica Hill in an appearance on “The Early Show.” He promised to lead a revival of America manufacturing, helping to spur economic growth and provide good jobs for workers if elected during his economic speech in Iowa. On hearing Friday’s job report Santorum said,” This morning’s jobs report is one more sign that the current Administration’s policies are impeding economic growth in America,” said the former Pennsylvania senator who outlined his economic plan earlier this week in Iowa. It was an otherwise quiet week for the former Senator who must hope he can spring a surprise in the polls soon.
8 – (8)	Tim Pawlenty The former Minnesota Governor seemed to spend the week trying to recover from his poor showing in the Des Moines Poll in Iowa. He went on the attack against Rep. Bachmann attacking her accomplishment record and said, “We’re not looking for folks who just have speech capabilities”. Pawlenty’s every appearance seemed to defend his poor early poll showing despite spending considerable time in Iowa. On a positive note, he launched a new Ad based on record and said if he had no mandate, he promised no takeovers. The ad was a good introductory add and focussed on his accomplishments as Governor. On the poor job report figures he said, “President Obama is out of answers and running out of time”. Pawlenty’s attacks on Bachmann will highlight his failure to attack Mitt Romney following his Obamneycare reference and only highlights the success Bachmann has had since entering the race. Another disappointing week for the former Minnesota Governor.
9 – (9)	Newt Gingrich The former Speaker’s campaign Gingrich took in $2 million in fund-raising during the second quarter, but ended the period with about $225,000 in the bank and debt of about $1 million. Mr. Gingrich had predicted his fund-raising numbers wouldn’t be pretty. Gingrich said, “Our numbers will not be as good as we would like, and candidly, the consultants left us in debt. But every single week since they left we’ve been cutting down the debt, and we raise more than we spend in a week.” Gingrich continues to talk about the issues and is literally relying on nothing short of a miracle to get a promising result in the early states. It is a shame as like Herman Cain & Gary Johnson, the former Speaker is an ideas man. He attacked Friday’s jobs report with a video on his campaign website. “We know that with the right kind of policies, we can turn around the economy with remarkable speed,” Gingrich says in the video. “With those kinds of changes, once again, we can get America back on the right track … solving most of the problems that the Obama administration seems incapable of doing.” He ended the week appearing on Fox & Friends attacking president Obama’s administration and their economic record referring to it again as the “Obama Depression”. Another week of hanging on in the race, a controversy and resignation free week for a change.
10 (10)	Thaddeus McCotter As expected Rep. McCotter got his first proper week off by covering a lot of ground and attacking everyone and anyone involved in the 2012 presidential race. McCotter said the GOP field failed their test during the recent CNN debate and also attacked China as being a very real threat to the US. He will no doubt make a bigger impression as the weeks progress but he’ll definitely be heard regardless of the end result.

Weekly GOP Candidates Review – W/E 3rd July 2011.

As part of the coverage of the 2012 Campaign, I’ll be providing a weekly summary on all the Candidates giving them a ranking and also be covering President Obama’s performance.

You’ll find the weekly review posted here every Sunday.

Fact of the week

Only 23% of likely voters are satisfied with the current GOP field while, 71% want more choice in Republican Field.

New Entrant

Thaddeus McCotter also announced his intention to seek the nomination at a Tea Party rally on Saturday, 2^nd July.

Weekly Ranking/ Previous Weeks Ranking	Comments
1 -  (1)	Michele Bachmann The Congresswoman officially launched her bid on Monday, 27th July in Waterloo, Iowa. She did have a slight slip up making an incorrect reference to John Wayne the actor which the media pounced on straight away. Bachmann did not let this phase her one bit and with the media trying to cast her as Sarah Palin the 2ndand also drive a wedge between the two women, Bachmann did not fall into the trap and praised her female & Tea-Party colleague as being brilliant. She set out her stall well saying her job is to turn economy around, create jobs and repeal Obamacare. Bachmann when asked why people find her interesting replied,”People find me appealing because I am focussed on the economy and job creation. The White House has even attacked her, a sign that they are worrying about the rising popularity of the representative from Minnesota. Even the recording artist Tom Petty attacked her for using his song “American Girl” at her launch. He should be thanking her for the publicity instead. Bachmann is without a doubt leading the charge against President Obama calling for him repeatedly to be a “One-term president”. Bachmann is doing two things extremely well at this stage, she is communicating her message well and unlike President Obama, she stands firm on the issues and does not flip-flop. Polls have also shown that she is gaining ground in New Hampshire increasing her stake by 11% in recent week. Another good week for Congresswoman Bachmann.
2 -  (2)	Mitt Romney The former Massachusetts Governor has another excellent week. He attacked President Obama from an Allentown Metalwork factory in Pennsylvania. This was an excellent and very effective place make the point about President Obama poor performance on the economy. It was the place where President Obama made a speech hailing his stimulus plan, the factory is now empty and Romney pointed to it as an example of the failed economic policies under Obama. Pennsylvania will be a key swing state in 2012 and it has seen 100,000 job losses since Obama came to power and currently there are 470,000 unemployed workers in state. Romney announced to a large media and supporter gathering outside the closed factory saying,” The presidents time has been focussed on playing golf and fund raising. Romney played a masterstroke too using an old Conservative poster used by Margaret Thatcher in 1979 which showed a long queue of people and the slogan “Obama isn’t working”. It was used in the 1979 election in the U.K under the then caption, “Labour isn’t working”. Margaret Thatcher and the Tory party went onto to win a landslide. Romney also won praise for former President Clinton during the week for the manner in which he has learned the lessons of 2008 and how he is conducting his campaign this time round. One interesting point is how Romney seems to have noticed Jon Huntsman appeal in not launching partisan attacks. Romney cited his bi-partisan record of working with former Senator Ted Kennedy. Romney and his team know American voters are getting fed up with politician’s bickering in Washington and failing to get any real work done. The current stalled debt ceiling talks is a glaring example of how Washington is not serving the people. Romney’s campaign raised just under $20 million dollars in the second quarter just short of his target. Providing Romney doesn’t suffer any unexpected slip ups, I expect the nomination race to come down to a straight fight between Huntsman and himself in 2012. Bachmann will be the likely vice-presidential candidate. The only way these three will be challenged realistically is if a Jeb Bush or Chris Christie enters the race.
3 -  (6)	Jon Huntsman Jon Huntsman had a very good week last week. He is proving himself to be an excellent retail politician. As American’s start learning about him and establish face recognition, they view him as well-spoken, smart, fresh-faced and cheerful, a great administrator, slightly progressive on social issues, conservative economically and savvy about foreign policy. Be clear about one thing, Huntsman is the Romney alternative and perhaps more uniquely for a general election, Huntsman is an independent’s dream and the Democrats’ nightmare. Huntsman raised a massive $4.1 million in a week. He has considerable access to funding and his own father is a billionaire businessman. Huntsman’s gentleman like approach to campaigning is going down well with the American public. He is not focussing his efforts on IOWA choosing instead to focus on New Hampshire like Romney. Huntsman for a man relatively only entering the race in recent weeks, got a huge amount of national media coverage last week. Tim Pawlenty in particular has been the loser to Huntsman in the media stakes. In a very interesting move, following Romney’s attack on President Obama in Pennsylvania. Huntsman announced that he is basing his Campaign headquarters in Florida. Florida may very well be another one of those swing states that could decide the outcome of the 2012 race.
4  – (5)	Ron Paul Another good week for the Texas Congressman. He came out during the week against government should subsidising any particular type of energy. Paul’s uncompromising stands for limited government, respect for the Constitution, and sound money management saw him raise $4.5 million for the second quarter even surpassing his own $3 million target for the week. He pulled off a massive coup for his campaign of 2012 by hiring heavyweight GOP pollster Fritz Wenzel, and his polling firm Wenzel Strategies to run its polling operations. “I am very proud and excited to be a part of the Ron Paul presidential team,” Wenzel said. “He has long stood strong for the core principles that have made our country great, and have made the Republican Party great when they heeded them.” “What makes Ron Paul such a strong candidate is his willingness to stand on principle, which has attracted more people to his message, to the point that the other candidates are now taking up his issues. The Congressman will provide plenty of input in the GOP race and his support will increase in the coming months with other candidate’s campaigns already starting to struggle.
5 – (7)	Rick Santorum The former Senator’s campaign is struggling to raise money and he returned to Iowa in the last week for a two-day swing in the state. He also managed to announce his South Carolina Leadership team. The interesting aspect of Santorum’s campaign is the consistency in his messaging using the word “courage” as a central theme on all topics.” The Courage to Balance the Budget.”  In this opinion piece, Senator Santorum argues that Republican leaders need to draw a line in the sand and not vote to raise the debt limit unless a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution is also passed. Santorum also kept up the consistency in relation to the job creation issue billing it, the “Courage to Fight for American Jobs” tour, Santorum, the plan aims to bring manufacturing back to America and discuss “revitalising America’s industrial and high-tech sectors” with local businesses. As expected he attacked the Gay marriage legislation passed in New York. Santorum is due to spend some time in Iowa in July when he takes his presidential campaign on a 10-city tour of Iowa. I see Santorum making gradual progress in the polls however, like Pawlenty, I am wondering if he is really running for the role of Vice President nominee, as opposed to presidential nominee. Raising finance in the third quarter will decide how far Santorum can actually go in this race but in terms of performance and coverage a better week again for Santorum.
6 – (3)	Herman Cain Businessman Herman Cain had a mixed week. He is still communicating very effectively and challenging strongly in all the polls even saying, “I am ecstatic about my current showing”. There is no doubting Cain’s popularity and appeal and his common sense message about solving problems is getting through to people. He is focussing on how Washington D.C. is in a mess and openly says, “We need to work on the right problems, surround your self with the right people and work on the right plans”. Cain is a fierce critic over the lack of leadership surrounding the debt crisis. The big problem Cain has is while he is a very popular character, and increasingly so in recent weeks, this popularity is not transferring in the fund raising stakes. His campaign announced it had raised $2.5 million in the second quarter but a good amount of this is seed money from Cain himself. In the last two weeks, Cain has seen his Iowa & New Hampshire team suffer resignations. I like Cain although perhaps, the first cracks in running a national political campaign and raising the required monies to support it are beginning to show. Cain will need to re-ignite the public’s imagination and belief that he can do the job of president. I don’t doubt Cain’s credential’s, it is his ability to transfer his business leadership into demonstrable political leadership ability that will decide his faith.
7 – (9)	Tim Pawlenty Pawlenty tried to dismiss the Early Polls results saying, not too much stock should be put in them as they almost never pick out the eventual winner. If early polls were an indicator, Hillary Clinton or Rudy Giuliani would be president now. The problem Pawlenty has is his campaign is starting to take the appearance of being disjointed. Pawlenty’s latest ad took shots at Romney about doing healthcare the right way and Michele Bachmann saying voters should focus on people who have a record and produced results not rhetoric. Pawlenty said what type of president do people want someone who doesn’t make good speeches but has a record? I’d put my record up against anyone in the race. Pawlenty attacked President Obama on the Arab Spring issue when giving his second major policy speech of the campaign this time on foreign policy saying America should lead the efforts in Middle East not withdraw from it. The problem Pawlenty has is that he seems to go down in the polls every time he appears in public. My point is simple, he is doing a lot of attacking of his GOP colleagues and President Obama yet, we are still very much in the early days of the campaign. Pawlenty needs to change his strategy, I believe the reason he hasn’t performed as well in the polls as he hoped for, is largely due to an expectation problem. Pawlenty was never going to beat Romney or Huntsman by trying to punch above his weight in the finance stakes or adopting a straight forward head-to head campaign. Pawlenty needs to play down expectations for a period and change his strategy as the fighting underdog. I believe this change would transform his campaign not just in the polls but in the finance raising stakes too. His campaign raised a disappointing $4.2 million in the second quarter. Pawlenty cannot be the real alternative choice to Romney if he doesn’t play to his strengths. He needs to make changes and soon otherwise Huntsman may very well over take him as the only real viable alternative to a Romney Nomination. He did show could political acumen by holding an impromptu news conference about the potential Minnesota state government shutdown. Pawlenty needs to guard against it as he could be tagged with it being his shutdown as a result of the decision he made whilst governor.
8 – (8)	Gary Johnson The former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson is still mounting an insurgency campaign. Finance and national coverage continue to be a problem for the former governor but he did get some good news and cause for optimism in the last week. He gained some good media coverage when research showed that when voters get to know him, his integrity and his record. He actually has the best chance of beating president Obama in a head to head. The PPP Poll gave him a 46-43% in a head to head with president Obama. Johnson also got some mileage out of a story about him being “The Iron Man Candidate” referring to his triathlon participation. The fact is any coverage is good coverage for now. The coverage in the last week has enabled him to get his message out and help voters identify him as the anti-drugs war candidate. There is a perception among independent commentators that CNN’s decision not to invite him to debate in New Hampshire was a determined effort to exclude his ideas about ending foreign wars and income tax. On a positive note, Johnson is starting to gain a lot of student support mainly as a result of his excellent social media strategy. Johnson needs to just keep his campaign alive and try and take the opportunities when they arise. He’s got good general election appeal but his problem is his primary voters. I hope Johnson stays in the race long enough for people to rate him on his ability, not his popularity.
9 – (4)	Newt Gingrich The former speaker spent last week pledging to run “a citizen campaign built on solutions that will bring real change to Washington.” Gingrich Attacked Same sex marriage saying the nation is drifting towards a terrible muddle. He signed onto the Cut, Cap and Balance pledge, joining other presidential candidates Herman Cain, Tm Pawlenty, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul in doing so. The pledge urges Congress to oppose raising the debt ceiling limit unless three conditions are met: cuts to federal spending to reduce the debt, caps on federal spending and passage of a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution. He used the term food-stamp president again during the week when making a speech to the black community. Gingrich attacked president Obama on job creation for the black community citing the 41% unemployment figure for African American teens. Gingrich also made move to rebuild his Georgia Campaign team with former backers of Mike Huckabee. The move is essential with rumours of little or no financial support and even continuing suggestions that his campaign is $1 million in debt already. I do not waiver on my belief that Gingrich has probably the best idea generating mind for solutions among the candidates. It is just a grave shame that his campaign has been such a disaster from the outset. I hope he can turn things around and provide people with the opportunity to hear what he has to say on the real serious problems facing America.
10 (N/A)	Thaddeus McCotter The latest to declare he is throwing his hat into the GOP presidential race. He announced his candidacy at a Tea Party rally in Michigan on Saturday. Finance and name recognition will be the major issues for him. He is an advocate of small government. He has two down sides against him starting out from a policy standpoint in the GOP race as he supported TARP & Auto Industry bail out.

Weekly GOP Candidates Review – W/E 26th June 2011.

As part of the coverage of the 2012 Campaign, I’ll be providing a weekly summary on all the Candidates giving them a ranking and also be covering President Obama’s performance.

You’ll find the weekly review posted here every Sunday.

Des Moines Iowa Poll

In the late June Poll from the Des Moines Register of 400 likely Republican caucus-goers, 23 percent picked Romney as their first choice, with Rep. Bachmann scoring 22 percent. Former Godfather’s CEO Herman Cain came in third with 10 percent; Gingrich & Paul are tied on 7%. Pawlenty a disappointing 6%, Santorum on 4%, and Huntsman on 2%.

Weekly Ranking/ Previous Weeks Ranking	Comments
1 –  (1)	Michele Bachmann It has been another excellent week for Rep. Michele Bachmann, who will officially announce her run for president Monday. Bachmann and Pawlenty got some much valued coverage on the front cover of Time Magazine. She responded to the news about New York passing the right to allow gays marriage strongly from a conservative viewpoint saying she would support a federal constitutional amendment to define marriage as between a man and woman, thereby overturning New York’s new law legalising gay Marriage. The Minnesota congresswoman said that “federal law will trump state law on this issue.” Bachmann is doing brilliantly at the moment, she is articulating a clear and powerful set of views, the only question is will her relative short time in Congress go against her or could she be the next James Garfield. She is outstanding at staying on message & delivering the fiery anti-government rhetoric that appeal to voters. She also got involved in the debt ceiling debate this past week calling the Democratic claims of a financial meltdown in the absence of a deal “scare tactics”. She rounded of the week achieving a great result of 22% in the Des Moines Iowa Poll only 1% point behind front-runner Romney. A second consecutive week at No.1 in the performance stakes for the Congresswoman.
2 -  (2)	Mitt Romney It was a tough week for the GOP front runner. Romney’s status as the frontrunner in the Republican field saw the expected attacks continue into the last week. The shots are mostly aimed at Romney’s refusal to sign a pledge offered by pro-life group Susan B. Anthony List pro-life pledge. The official announcement by Jon Huntsman drew attention to both men’s Mormon religion with a poll showing that 22% of American’s would be hesitant in voting for a Mormon. I believe religion won’t be an issue in this election and both men are capable of overcoming this issue much like JFK overcame his Catholicism to get elected. Romney is also gearing up his fund raising efforts announcing a plan to form a Super-PAC to step up his war chest. He ended the week topping the Des Moines Iowa straw poll claiming 23% of the vote. It was a good week for Romney despite a lot of attacks from other GOP candidates and media coverage of the issue. What cannot be ignored is Romney’s candidacy has holes within the core Republican base especially among conservative social issues which may prove a threat to his campaign down the road.
3 -  (3)	Herman Cain Herman Cain stayed a steady third again this week. Although it was a difficult week with attacks from a Jewish group over his rhetoric regarding Israel and a clash with a reporter over his stance on members of the Islamic faith serving in his prospective cabinet. Cain stuck to the task and over come his most difficult week yet through sheer focus, staying on message and his appeal and name recognition is still rising. Cain did not sign the Susan B. Anthony pledge like Romney but cited Congressional jurisdiction over abortion funding. He did say however if the bill came to his desk for signing as president he would sign the bill. Cain announced that like Bachmann he would partake in the Twitter _ GOP debate on the 20th July. Cain is Listening to the voters and selling his strength as being a problem solver very credibly, he speaks clearly and is assertive. He has openly admitted that he is not concerned with the treacherous path to Washington. The week ended very well again for “The Herminator” claiming an excellent 10% in the Des Moines Iowa Straw Poll.
4  – (7)	Newt Gingrich The week appeared to be heading for a complete disaster for the former speaker with all the figures appearing to be going the wrong way for him. Gingrich’s favourability rating among Republicans plunged in one month from 61% to 43% as his campaign was bit by massive staff defections, dreadful fund-raising and reports that he and his wife had racked up huge bills at luxury jeweller Tiffany’s. There are also rumours that at this early stage his campaign is more than $1 million dollars in the red, these allegations have yet to be confirmed. Newt did the sensible and logical approach to his critics dismissing the importance of early political handicapping and saying his strategy and approach will build momentum in the coming weeks. He was naturally and expectedly scathing about President Obama’s troop withdrawal announcement from Afghanistan saying there is “Tsunami of violence building offshore” against America. He got what I believe is a good 7% in the Iowa straw poll. I say it’s a good result because considering all the problems he’s had so far, and the efforts of others in the state, he performed well. Newt should be encouraged by his showing and must believe that the only way is up from here.
5 – (4)	Ron Paul Ron Paul had a good week showing that not only does he talk the talk, he also walks the walk. He called for an end of federal involvement in the regulation of marijuana and said it should be left to the states to deal with the matter. He introduced a bill to the House with Massachusetts Democrat Barney Frank last Thursday. He again repeated his efforts to have the Federal Reserve audited and discussed his objections to the funding of Planned Parenthood. Paul ended the week very well again gaining a solid 7% in the Iowa straw poll along with Newt Gingrich. He started a big Fund-raising drive in which he hope to raise $3 million inside a week.
6 – (6)	Jon Huntsman Huntsman, who announced his candidacy this week but still is relatively unknown nationally, had a 23% favourability rating among Republicans. He’s gotten better known — 59% had no opinion about him in the latest poll, down slightly from 66% a month earlier. The same applies to Huntsman like Romney on his religious background. This election is going to be won or lost on the economy but despite his distinct lack of name recognition he did start his campaign as being the natural alternative to Mitt Romney and I suspect he will actually split Romney & Pawlenty vote as the campaign progresses. He under went a very biased and tough interview with George Stephanopoulos on ABC News. In what was a very one-sided interview, Stephanopoulos even used quotes from David Axelrod who is leading President Obama’s WH re-election team to attack Huntsman. Interestingly, considering he only announced he candidacy officially 24 hours earlier, there may be a lot of truth in the widespread belief that he is the one GOP candidate the Obama re-election team fear. He did pledge to run a civil campaign and seemed Reaganesque when discussing the problems facing America at present. Huntsman has a good fund raising apparatus in place, good advisors and a great foreign policy portfolio which the other candidates haven’t. The one thing he needs is voters and increasing his name recognition will be his major challenge in the coming months. A good week for Huntsman.
7 – (5)	Rick Santorum Santorum is playing a clever game at present by sticking purely to the issues. He didn’t do his chances of increasing his polling in Iowa much, when he called for a cut to the federal funding of Ethanol. Ethanol is a bit of a sacred cow in the state and its significance was brilliantly portrayed in the TV series “The West Wing”. He will no doubt gain base support for his open Defence Israel and supporting the view that Israel should not be forced to participate in negotiations. He also gave credible speeches and interviews surrounding education and the teaching of history in American schools and the Medicare debate. He claimed 4% of the Iowa poll vote which actually is not a bad result when all is considered. I think Santorum clearly has his sight set on the other early states and the hope of making a good showing in one of the primaries there. Santorum is adopting a marathon approach to his campaign and if he continues, he may surprise a few a people in the coming months. .
8 – (8)	Gary Johnson Indirectly CNN did Gary Johnson a favour by not inviting him to their New Hampshire debate insofar as it improved his name recognition. Johnson as a Libertarian attacked President Obama on the troop’s withdrawal from Afghanistan calling the president’s act as troops “Lip service.”  Johnson said the troops should have left a long time ago. Johnson is struggling to raise his profile and the funds but his social media efforts are slowly making some inroads and he did well in getting media coverage which highlighted that among all the GOP candidates he has the best job creation record. In view of his restricted resources he had a good week all things considered.
9 – (9)	Tim Pawlenty The week started well for Pawlenty getting good exposure on the Cover of Time magazine and a lot of polls showing he had made good progress with Republicans, particularly among tea party supporters. He did a good solid interview with Fox’s Bill O’Reilly who called him Vanilla some weeks before and the two had a healthy exchange. The early week polls seemed to reflect his renewed effort to show his character and resilience more with his favourable ratings rise 10 percentage points to 43%. His support among tea party backers was up 11 points. The Iowa Straw Poll was a huge blow for Pawlenty who has spent more time in the state then any other candidate as he achieved only 6% of the poll. This represents bad news for the former Minnesota Governor and he could do worse, then give his old friend Mike Huckabee a call for some advice on where he’s going wrong. Pawlenty will need to assess his campaign and being the honest guy he is, he knows he needs to do much better. A poor end to what appeared to be a promising week for Pawlenty and a good advertisement attacking Romney. Pawlenty would’ve probably claimed the third spot this week only for the disastrous result in the Iowa Poll for him.

Des Moines Register Iowa Poll

Des Moines Register  figures        Name

23%                               Romney

22%                              Bachmann

10%                              Cain

7%                                Gingrich

7%                                Paul

6%                                Pawlenty

4%                                Santorum

2%                                Huntsman

2%                                Johnson

Source: http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/06/25/iowa-poll-romney-bachmann-in-lead-cain-third-others-find-little-traction/

Weekly GOP Candidates Review – W/E 19th June 2011.

As part of the coverage of the 2012 Campaign, I’ll be providing a weekly summary on all the Candidates giving them a ranking and also be covering President Obama’s performance.

Congresswoman Michele Bachmann confirmed during the CNN debate that she is entering the race increasing the field to nice candidates for the purposes of this weeks review.

You’ll find the weekly review posted here every Sunday.

Weekly Ranking/ Previous Weeks Ranking	Comments
1 –  (N/D)	Michele Bachmann It was an impressive first week for Congresswoman Bachmann in her first official week in the GOP race. She performed outstandingly in the CNN sponsored GOP debate.  Bachmann has cast herself as the voice of the people and effectively transformed herself into the standard-bearer for the hardcore social and fiscal conservatives who are seeking an alternative to establishment candidates. She believes she has the edge in the three early races because of Tea Party influence in New Hampshire and South Carolina and also because of her birth in Iowa and hopes to build on the momentum gained from these races. She’s building support by constantly championing President Obama one term president. Bachmann will need to build her youth core & internet base in order to start reaching critical masses. Her appeal is that she is viewed as an outsider and not part of the establishment. She is quiet charming in infectious way, dynamic and has shown herself to be knowledgeable about economic issues. Attention will turn to her in the coming weeks when the vote over the debt ceiling raise comes to the floor and may pose some negative national headlines for her. Bachmann rounded off the week at the Republican National Conference coming third in Republican straw poll contest and rising to a clear number 2 in the polls.
2 -  (1)	Mitt Romney Former Governor Romney continued his recent good showing as the current GOP frontrunner by avoiding attacks during the CNN debate and showing himself to look very presidential. He got all the positive coverage at the expense of Tim Pawlenty over the Obamneycare slip up by his rival. The week didn’t end too good for Romney thought firstly getting caught up in a controversy about making a joke about himself being unemployed and although saying he would be a pro-life president, he refused to sign the Susan B. Anthony pledge. Romney skipped the Republican Leadership Conference but the failure by him to sign the pledge may affect him in Southern states and his fund raising capability there. Overall, another good week for the former Massachusetts Governor and his solid lead in the polls continues.
3 -  (3)	Herman Cain My favourite outsider Herman Cain had another good week. I thought he started off slow in the CNN sponsored debate but he grew in confidence and performance as the debate went on. Cain is selling the fact that he’s not an establishment or career politician. He admits to what he does know and openly admits to what he doesn’t know and this is increasingly being viewed positively by the American Public.  He also said during the week that he’s not afraid to be called the Black Mike Huckabee in the sense that he accepts and recognises that he’s not part of the political elite. Cain took some heat over his stance about Muslim’s serving in his administration but rejected a reporters attempt to twist his words on the issue. He delivered an exceptional and resounding speech at the Republican Leadership Conference and placed a very creditable fourth in the straw poll. He declared that he’s not going to allow himself to be a punching bag with the mainstream media in a passionate delivery. He is currently placed third among confirmed candidates and got a slight bump in the polls again. The Herminator’s star continues to rise.
4  – (5)	Ron Paul Congressman Ron Paul’s campaign is starting to build momentum similar to his 2008 campaign. He had an excellent result in winning the straw poll at Republican Leadership Conference on Saturday in New Orleans by a wide margin. He performed well during the CNN debate and is selling how he wants to legalise freedom. When asked if he is too old to be president he retorted saying it is ideas not age that matters. He is using the Internet very effectively to get his message out effectively by-passing the mainstream media and attracting a swell of support with his libertarian philosophy. Another good week by the Congressman.
5 – (4)	Rick Santorum The former Senator had a better week this week. He was the only candidate to attack GOP front runner Mitt Romney during the CNN debate on the abortion issue and went further on the attack against Romney saying he was not running as a committed pro-lifer for declining to sign the Susan B. Anthony pledge to refuse federal funding of abortions. There was a concerning poll which indicated Pennsylvanians favour GOP front-runner Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama over him in an election. Santorum faces similar challenges to Gingrich in terms of campaign longevity, ability to raise money and his performance in early primary states. Santorum is playing a shrewd game so far by demonstrating the necessary discipline of a long-distance runner as he puts an expansive grassroots infrastructure in place and looks to break out in key early primary states. A good and steady week for the former Senator.
6 – (6)	Jon Huntsman Huntsman is expected to declare this coming Tuesday, 21 June and many expect him to run as a more moderate candidate then his rivals. It is believed he will tap into the current Afghanistan war as an issue and question how America is allocating its resources in the wrong way. He came an excellent second in the straw poll at Republican Leadership Conference on Saturday. Huntsman’s team are selling his high placement as a sign that young conservatives are responding with enthusiasm to his record of success in Utah and his willingness to take the debt problem seriously, combined with a foreign policy message. He is still viewed warily because of his centrist positions on immigration, cap-and-trade legislation and gay rights, as well as his willingness to serve in the Obama administration. Huntsman is expected to make a big impression in the polls in the coming weeks and don’t bet against him going all the way.
7 – (7)	Newt Gingrich The former speaker after suffering mass staff defections, party infighting and polls suggesting he is a fading political star from a past era. Gingrich performed very well in the CNN debate and his assertion of running an idea focussed campaign not the traditional campaign seemed to gain some steam. The key challenges facing the former speakers campaign in the coming months is his ability to raise money and his performance in early primary states and his ability of avoiding gaffes and missteps. He viewed the desertions of the previous week as an exodus as a culture clash between long-term staffers and recently hired consultants who wanted Gingrich to spend all his time raising money and leave all the thinking to them. Unfortunately, after a promising start to his relaunch week, Gingrich got into a row with NBC news over a piece they ran on his wife Calista and demanded an apology. His speech to the Republican Leadership Conference received a mixed reception as he tries to champion running a new type of ideas focussed campaign. An average week for the former speaker..
8 – (8)	Gary Johnson The Former New Mexico Governor has had a difficult week. CNN had decided to exclude Johnson from appearing in its Republican debate last Monday. The former Governor using the Internet medium to challenge the mainstream media and his own GOP presidential colleagues, took to his YouTube channel to directly communicate his thoughts on CNN’s decision to determine the field of candidates he also took all the questions asked by CNN to those GOP candidates appearing in the debate and answered all the questions something the other candidates couldn’t do appearing in the debate. Unfortunately, he didn’t perform well in the straw poll held at the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans. He’s fighting to stay in the campaign and needs a good week or to launch a major policy speech to get the mainstream media’s attention for his campaign.
9 – (1)	Tim Pawlenty The former Minnesota Governor had a bad week, he started the week off coining the phrase Obamneycare attacking front runner on his record on healthcare in Massachusetts. The following night, when he was handed the perfect opportunity to attack Romney who is his rival as the establishment candidate he appeared to do a U-turn and blamed President Obama on the phrase. Pawlenty spent the rest of the week defending criticisms on his debate performance and accusations that he is too nice to be president or win the GOP nomination. Later in the week, he went on record saying yes he’d made a mistake not challenging Governor Romney on the night of the debate. The only person coming to his defence was Governor Mike Huckabee who said he was an excellent Governor and is strong & tough but did say Pawlenty doesn’t need people to coach him and over consult him. He said Pawlenty just needs to be himself. Pawlenty skipped the Republican Leadership Conference and remained stagnant in the polls. He tried to re-ignite some energy into his campaign saying he would veto any deficit budget.  A bad week for the former Governor despite all the media opportunities.

Latest Rasmussen Poll

Rasmussen Poll figures        Name

33%                               Romney

19%                              Bachmann

10%                              Cain

9%                                Gingrich

7%                                Paul

6%                                Pawlenty

6%                                Santorum

2%                                Huntsman

2%                                Johnson

Source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/weekly_updates/what_they_told_us_reviewing_last_week_s_key_polls